Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.