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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.