Pitches, Balls and Back-ups – Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost
Two days remaining.
England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.
Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.
It's tough to score runs, right?
Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.
A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".
Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.
There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.
Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.
Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.
A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.
Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.
After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about solving problems.
When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.
Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.
What’s happening with the Australia seamers?
On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.
Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.
Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.
From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.
The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.
On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.
Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.
Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.
The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.
The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.
In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.
Tough at the top
Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.
Not anymore.
Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.
The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.
The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.
His average increases when the bowling gets faster.
In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.
Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.
Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.
It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.
Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.
In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.
Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.
Spin war
Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.
England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.
During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.
Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.
Recall the potency of pace bowling?
It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.
In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.
Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.
Favorable Conditions?
England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.
The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.
The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.
Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.
This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.
The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.
It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.
The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.
The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.
Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.
Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.
The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.
Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.
England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.
The issue in {day-night matches|
